Anti-immigration narratives have been the most prominent form of disinformation detected during Portugal’s 2026 presidential election, accounting for the largest share of misleading content identified to date by researchers from Iscte/IBERIFIER, within the framework of the Rapid Response System under the Code of Conduct on Disinformation activated for the electoral process.
According to monitoring carried out since 22 December, 48 significant instances of electoral disinformation have been identified across social media platforms, disseminated through multiple online networks. Immigration stands out as the most recurrent topic, with eight recorded cases, followed by personal attacks on candidates, alleged irregularities in the voting system, content relating to opinion polls, crime, corruption and ideological framing.
The preliminary report indicates that immigration-related disinformation focuses primarily on individuals originating from South and Southeast Asia, particularly from countries such as Bangladesh, India and Nepal, and is frequently linked to so-called “Great Replacement” narratives. These claims suggest an alleged erosion of “Portuguese”, “European” or “Christian” values, often misleadingly associated with Islam, despite the fact that many of the groups targeted have no connection to that religion.
The analysis confirms a pattern already identified in previous electoral cycles: immigration has overtaken corruption as the most prevalent theme of disinformation during electoral periods in Portugal, consolidating its position as a central axis of polarising narratives in the digital sphere.
Beyond immigration, the team identified five cases involving allegations of electoral fraud, all centred on voting by Portuguese citizens residing abroad. These narratives claim that emigrants are systematically prevented from voting, exploiting the fact that postal voting is not permitted in presidential elections. While the voting process for citizens overseas is widely recognised as demanding — requiring in-person voting at Portuguese consulates — researchers stress that the disinformation detected misrepresents the existing legal framework.
In most instances, the spread of disinformation follows a multi-platform logic. Although 16 cases were identified on the social network X, which is not a signatory to the Code of Practice , the same content is frequently replicated on platforms such as TikTok, Facebook and Instagram, driven in particular by the widespread use of vertical video formats that are easily repurposed across platforms.
These findings stem from the work of an academic team at Iscte, a partner of the Iberian Digital Media Observatory, IBERIFIER, which is monitoring social media during the Portuguese presidential election. The objective is to identify content which may impact election integrity.
The role of artificial intelligence in the production of such content has been closely monitored, but researchers conclude that its use in Portugal remains at an experimental stage, often for satirical purposes. By contrast, practices such as selective and decontextualised video editing are far more widespread and effective in constructing misleading narratives, particularly in attacks targeting specific candidates or groups.
Whenever problematic content is identified, it is flagged to the platforms, which have responded by issuing user warnings, limiting reach or removing content. At the same time, researchers have observed an increased presence of official information about the electoral process in users’ feeds, as part of a preventive strategy to counter disinformation.
The researchers that compose the IBERIFIER / Iscte team are António Vasconcelos, José Moreno (Coord.), Miguel Paisana, Paulo Couraceiro and Pedro Caldeira Pais.
With the campaign for the second round of the presidential election now under way, between António José Seguro and André Ventura, the team anticipates a rise in the aggressiveness of political discourse on social media and a higher incidence of personal attacks. Nevertheless, researchers underline that Portugal continues to display relatively high levels of trust in the media and a historical resilience to disinformation as a decisive factor in electoral outcomes.
Monitoring efforts will be intensified until the second round, scheduled for 8 February, in what researchers describe as an important test of the ability to detect and contain persistent, albeit low-intensity, disinformation dynamics within a consolidated democratic system.
